Global projections of drought hazard in a warming climate: a prime for disaster risk management

Projections of drought hazard (dH) changes have been mapped from five bias-corrected climate models and analyzed at the global level under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The motivation for this study is the observation that drought risk is increasing globally and the effective r...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Carrão, Hugo, Naumann, Gustavo, Barbosa, Paulo
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2018
País:Argentina
Institución:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
Repositorio:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/60154
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/11336/60154
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Cmip5 Models
Drought Hazard
Global Warming
Isi-Mip Project
Rcp Scenarios
Risk Management
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
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spelling Global projections of drought hazard in a warming climate: a prime for disaster risk management Carrão, Hugo Naumann, Gustavo Barbosa, Paulo Cmip5 Models Drought Hazard Global Warming Isi-Mip Project Rcp Scenarios Risk Management https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 Projections of drought hazard (dH) changes have been mapped from five bias-corrected climate models and analyzed at the global level under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The motivation for this study is the observation that drought risk is increasing globally and the effective regulation of prevention and adaptation measures depends on dH magnitude and its distribution for the future. Based on the Weighted Anomaly of Standardized Precipitation index, dH changes have been assessed for mid-(2021–2050) and late-century (2071–2099). With a few exceptions, results show a likely increase in global dH between the historical years (1971–2000) and both future time periods under all RCPs. Notwithstanding this worsening trend, it was found that projections of dH changes for most regions are neither robust nor significant in the near-future. By the end of the century, greater increases are projected for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcing. Under RCP8.5, statistically significant dH changes emerge for global Mediterranean ecosystems and the Amazon region, which are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. Taken together, projections of dH changes point towards two dilemmas: (1) in the near-term, stake-holders are left worrying about projected increasing dH over large regions, but lack of actionable model agreement to take effective decisions related to local prevention and adaptation initiatives; (2) in the long-term, models demonstrate remarkable agreement, but stake-holders lack actionable knowledge to manage potential impacts far distant from actual human-dominated environments. We conclude that the major challenge for risk management is not to adapt human populations or their activities to dH changes, but to progress on global initiatives that mitigate their impacts in the whole carbon cycle by late-century. Fil: Carrão, Hugo. European Commission, Joint Research Centre; Italia Fil: Naumann, Gustavo. European Commission, Joint Research Centre; Italia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina Fil: Barbosa, Paulo. European Commission, Joint Research Centre; Italia Springer http://hdl.handle.net/11336/60154 Carrão, Hugo; Naumann, Gustavo; Barbosa, Paulo; Global projections of drought hazard in a warming climate: a prime for disaster risk management; Springer; Climate Dynamics; 50; 5-6; 3-2018; 2137-2155 0930-7575 1432-0894 CONICET Digital CONICET
title Global projections of drought hazard in a warming climate: a prime for disaster risk management
spellingShingle Global projections of drought hazard in a warming climate: a prime for disaster risk management
Carrão, Hugo
Cmip5 Models
Drought Hazard
Global Warming
Isi-Mip Project
Rcp Scenarios
Risk Management
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
title_short Global projections of drought hazard in a warming climate: a prime for disaster risk management
title_full Global projections of drought hazard in a warming climate: a prime for disaster risk management
title_fullStr Global projections of drought hazard in a warming climate: a prime for disaster risk management
title_full_unstemmed Global projections of drought hazard in a warming climate: a prime for disaster risk management
title_sort Global projections of drought hazard in a warming climate: a prime for disaster risk management
author Carrão, Hugo
author_facet Carrão, Hugo
Naumann, Gustavo
Barbosa, Paulo
author_role author
author2 Naumann, Gustavo
Barbosa, Paulo
author2_role author
author
topic Cmip5 Models
Drought Hazard
Global Warming
Isi-Mip Project
Rcp Scenarios
Risk Management
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
topic_facet Cmip5 Models
Drought Hazard
Global Warming
Isi-Mip Project
Rcp Scenarios
Risk Management
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
description Projections of drought hazard (dH) changes have been mapped from five bias-corrected climate models and analyzed at the global level under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The motivation for this study is the observation that drought risk is increasing globally and the effective regulation of prevention and adaptation measures depends on dH magnitude and its distribution for the future. Based on the Weighted Anomaly of Standardized Precipitation index, dH changes have been assessed for mid-(2021–2050) and late-century (2071–2099). With a few exceptions, results show a likely increase in global dH between the historical years (1971–2000) and both future time periods under all RCPs. Notwithstanding this worsening trend, it was found that projections of dH changes for most regions are neither robust nor significant in the near-future. By the end of the century, greater increases are projected for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcing. Under RCP8.5, statistically significant dH changes emerge for global Mediterranean ecosystems and the Amazon region, which are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. Taken together, projections of dH changes point towards two dilemmas: (1) in the near-term, stake-holders are left worrying about projected increasing dH over large regions, but lack of actionable model agreement to take effective decisions related to local prevention and adaptation initiatives; (2) in the long-term, models demonstrate remarkable agreement, but stake-holders lack actionable knowledge to manage potential impacts far distant from actual human-dominated environments. We conclude that the major challenge for risk management is not to adapt human populations or their activities to dH changes, but to progress on global initiatives that mitigate their impacts in the whole carbon cycle by late-century.
publishDate 2018
format article
status_str publishedVersion
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/60154
identifier_str_mv Carrão, Hugo; Naumann, Gustavo; Barbosa, Paulo; Global projections of drought hazard in a warming climate: a prime for disaster risk management; Springer; Climate Dynamics; 50; 5-6; 3-2018; 2137-2155
0930-7575
1432-0894
CONICET Digital
CONICET
language eng
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
publisher Springer
institution Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
_version_ 1878403733777285120
publishDateSort 2018
author_browse Barbosa, Paulo
Carrão, Hugo
Naumann, Gustavo
publisherStr Springer
score 6,9303427

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