Assessing marine heat waves in the Mediterranean Sea: a comparison of fixed and moving baseline methods

The study of marine heat waves as extreme temperature events has a wide range of applications, from a gauge for ecological and socioeconomic impact to a climate change indicator. Various definitions of marine heat waves as extreme sea temperature events exist to account for its broad applicability,...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Rosselló, Pere, Pascual, Ananda, Combes, Vincent
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2023
País:España
Institución:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
Repositorio:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
OAI Identifier:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/337870
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/337870
https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/85164573156
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Baseline period
CMIP6
Extreme event
Marine heat wave
Mediterranean Sea
Sea surface temperature
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spelling Assessing marine heat waves in the Mediterranean Sea: a comparison of fixed and moving baseline methods Rosselló, Pere Pascual, Ananda Combes, Vincent Baseline period CMIP6 Extreme event Marine heat wave Mediterranean Sea Sea surface temperature The study of marine heat waves as extreme temperature events has a wide range of applications, from a gauge for ecological and socioeconomic impact to a climate change indicator. Various definitions of marine heat waves as extreme sea temperature events exist to account for its broad applicability, with statistical definitions based on percentile based thresholds being widespread in its use. Using satellite and model data of the Mediterranean Sea, we analyze the statistical implications of choosing baseline climatological periods for threshold delineation, which are either fixed in the past or shifted in time. We show that in the context of a warming Mediterranean Sea, using a fixed baseline leads to a saturation of marine heat wave days that compromises the significance of this marine indicator, with 90% of climate models analyzed predicting an average above 189 marine heat wave days per year by 2050 even for the lowest emission scenario. We argue that only with a moving baseline, can we reach a definition for marine heat waves which yield consistently rare extreme events. This work has been funded by the JAE-Intro scholarships issued by the Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), the Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies (IMEDEA), and the University of Balearic islands (UIB). Part of this work was supported by the EuroSea project (www.eurosea.eu), which has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No. 862626. VC also acknowledges the support from the Ramón y Cajal Program (RYC2020-029306-I) and from the European Social Fund/Universitat de les Illes Balears/Spanish State Research Agency (AEI - 10.13039/501100011033). With funding from the Spanish government through the ‘María de Maeztu Unit of Excelence’ accreditation (CEX2021- 001198) Peer reviewed Frontiers Media http://hdl.handle.net/10261/337870 https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/85164573156
title Assessing marine heat waves in the Mediterranean Sea: a comparison of fixed and moving baseline methods
spellingShingle Assessing marine heat waves in the Mediterranean Sea: a comparison of fixed and moving baseline methods
Rosselló, Pere
Baseline period
CMIP6
Extreme event
Marine heat wave
Mediterranean Sea
Sea surface temperature
title_short Assessing marine heat waves in the Mediterranean Sea: a comparison of fixed and moving baseline methods
title_full Assessing marine heat waves in the Mediterranean Sea: a comparison of fixed and moving baseline methods
title_fullStr Assessing marine heat waves in the Mediterranean Sea: a comparison of fixed and moving baseline methods
title_full_unstemmed Assessing marine heat waves in the Mediterranean Sea: a comparison of fixed and moving baseline methods
title_sort Assessing marine heat waves in the Mediterranean Sea: a comparison of fixed and moving baseline methods
author Rosselló, Pere
author_facet Rosselló, Pere
Pascual, Ananda
Combes, Vincent
author_role author
author2 Pascual, Ananda
Combes, Vincent
author2_role author
author
topic Baseline period
CMIP6
Extreme event
Marine heat wave
Mediterranean Sea
Sea surface temperature
topic_facet Baseline period
CMIP6
Extreme event
Marine heat wave
Mediterranean Sea
Sea surface temperature
description The study of marine heat waves as extreme temperature events has a wide range of applications, from a gauge for ecological and socioeconomic impact to a climate change indicator. Various definitions of marine heat waves as extreme sea temperature events exist to account for its broad applicability, with statistical definitions based on percentile based thresholds being widespread in its use. Using satellite and model data of the Mediterranean Sea, we analyze the statistical implications of choosing baseline climatological periods for threshold delineation, which are either fixed in the past or shifted in time. We show that in the context of a warming Mediterranean Sea, using a fixed baseline leads to a saturation of marine heat wave days that compromises the significance of this marine indicator, with 90% of climate models analyzed predicting an average above 189 marine heat wave days per year by 2050 even for the lowest emission scenario. We argue that only with a moving baseline, can we reach a definition for marine heat waves which yield consistently rare extreme events.
publishDate 2023
format article
status_str publishedVersion
url http://hdl.handle.net/10261/337870
https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/85164573156
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
publisher Frontiers Media
institution Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
collection DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
reponame_str DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
instname_str Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
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publishDateSort 2023
author_browse Combes, Vincent
Pascual, Ananda
Rosselló, Pere
publisherStr Frontiers Media
score 6,924472

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