A new approach based on association rules to add explainability to time series forecasting models

Machine learning and deep learning have become the most useful and powerful tools in the last years to mine information from large datasets. Despite the successful application to many research fields, it is widely known that some of these solutions based on artificial intelligence are considered bla...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Troncoso García, Ángela del Robledo, Martínez Ballesteros, María del Mar, Martínez Álvarez, Francisco, Troncoso Lora, Alicia
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2023
País:España
Institución:Universidad de Sevilla (US)
Repositorio:idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevilla
OAI Identifier:oai:idus.us.es:11441/146052
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/11441/146052
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inffus.2023.01.021
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Explainable AI
Machine learning
Time series forecasting
Interpretability
Association rules
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spelling A new approach based on association rules to add explainability to time series forecasting models Troncoso García, Ángela del Robledo Martínez Ballesteros, María del Mar Martínez Álvarez, Francisco Troncoso Lora, Alicia Explainable AI Machine learning Time series forecasting Interpretability Association rules Machine learning and deep learning have become the most useful and powerful tools in the last years to mine information from large datasets. Despite the successful application to many research fields, it is widely known that some of these solutions based on artificial intelligence are considered black-box models, meaning that most experts find difficult to explain and interpret the models and why they generate such outputs. In this context, explainable artificial intelligence is emerging with the aim of providing black-box models with sufficient interpretability. Thus, models could be easily understood and further applied. This work proposes a novel method to explain black-box models, by using numeric association rules to explain and interpret multi-step time series forecasting models. Thus, a multi-objective algorithm is used to discover quantitative association rules from the target model. Then, visual explanation techniques are applied to make the rules more interpretable. Data from Spanish electricity energy consumption has been used to assess the suitability of the proposal. Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación PID2020-117954RB-C21 Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación TED2021-131311B-C22 Junta de Andalucía PY20-00870 Junta de Andalucía UPO-138516 ScienceDirect https://hdl.handle.net/11441/146052 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inffus.2023.01.021
title A new approach based on association rules to add explainability to time series forecasting models
spellingShingle A new approach based on association rules to add explainability to time series forecasting models
Troncoso García, Ángela del Robledo
Explainable AI
Machine learning
Time series forecasting
Interpretability
Association rules
title_short A new approach based on association rules to add explainability to time series forecasting models
title_full A new approach based on association rules to add explainability to time series forecasting models
title_fullStr A new approach based on association rules to add explainability to time series forecasting models
title_full_unstemmed A new approach based on association rules to add explainability to time series forecasting models
title_sort A new approach based on association rules to add explainability to time series forecasting models
author Troncoso García, Ángela del Robledo
author_facet Troncoso García, Ángela del Robledo
Martínez Ballesteros, María del Mar
Martínez Álvarez, Francisco
Troncoso Lora, Alicia
author_role author
author2 Martínez Ballesteros, María del Mar
Martínez Álvarez, Francisco
Troncoso Lora, Alicia
author2_role author
author
author
topic Explainable AI
Machine learning
Time series forecasting
Interpretability
Association rules
topic_facet Explainable AI
Machine learning
Time series forecasting
Interpretability
Association rules
description Machine learning and deep learning have become the most useful and powerful tools in the last years to mine information from large datasets. Despite the successful application to many research fields, it is widely known that some of these solutions based on artificial intelligence are considered black-box models, meaning that most experts find difficult to explain and interpret the models and why they generate such outputs. In this context, explainable artificial intelligence is emerging with the aim of providing black-box models with sufficient interpretability. Thus, models could be easily understood and further applied. This work proposes a novel method to explain black-box models, by using numeric association rules to explain and interpret multi-step time series forecasting models. Thus, a multi-objective algorithm is used to discover quantitative association rules from the target model. Then, visual explanation techniques are applied to make the rules more interpretable. Data from Spanish electricity energy consumption has been used to assess the suitability of the proposal.
publishDate 2023
format article
status_str publishedVersion
url https://hdl.handle.net/11441/146052
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inffus.2023.01.021
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
publisher ScienceDirect
institution Universidad de Sevilla (US)
collection idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevilla
reponame_str idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevilla
instname_str Universidad de Sevilla (US)
_version_ 1878733572430364672
publishDateSort 2023
author_browse Martínez Ballesteros, María del Mar
Martínez Álvarez, Francisco
Troncoso García, Ángela del Robledo
Troncoso Lora, Alicia
publisherStr ScienceDirect
score 6.8972664

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