Implementation and validation of a cyclone tracking algorithm. Projected changes under future climate conditions over the Iberian
ABSTRACT: Despite the important social impact and the human and material losses associated to extreme wind events in the last years, the number of studies analyzing projected changes in future climate conditions are still scarce. For example, the Xynthia storm occurred in 2010 produced 59 deaths and...
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| Formato: | tesis de maestría |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2018 |
| País: | España |
| Recursos: | Universidad de Cantabria (UC) |
| Repositorio: | UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabria |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:repositorio.unican.es:10902/16282 |
| Acesso em linha: | http://hdl.handle.net/10902/16282 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palavra-chave: | Explosive cyclogenesis Tracking algorithm Climate projections CyclonTrackR Climate4R CMIP5 Ciclogénesis explosiva Algoritmo de seguimiento Proyecciones climáticas |
| Resumo: | ABSTRACT: Despite the important social impact and the human and material losses associated to extreme wind events in the last years, the number of studies analyzing projected changes in future climate conditions are still scarce. For example, the Xynthia storm occurred in 2010 produced 59 deaths and around 2.5 billion euros cost in Europe, affected also to Spain. The storm was re ected as an ephemeris by the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET). In order to reduce the effects of these extreme events, there are different cyclone tracking algorithms that help identifying the centers of the windstorms and characterizing their trajectories from their creation until their dissolution. The present Master's thesis analyzes the frequency of occurrence of extreme wind events in the Iberian Peninsula and the projections for the 21st century according to the different climate change scenarios defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). An algorithm has been implemented using the R programming language to characterize and analyze possible future changes in storm tracking. As a result, the R package named cyclonTrackR has been created. The package is already available in GitHub (https://github.com/SantanderMetGroup/cyclonTrackR) and will be included as part of the bundle of R packages Climate4R (http://meteo.unican.es/en/climate4R) developed by the Meteorology Group from the University of Cantabria where this work has been carried out. |
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